“EVERY DAY, we see a graph that appears to definitively measure the number of coronavirus cases or the rate of infection in a given geographic region. The counts might be accurate, or they might be seven, or 13, or who-knows-how-many times too low. Still, I check in on them, and hope they’ll help me make some decisions about my life, because what other information do I have to go on?”

– Emily Watlington in “Quantified Life: An Interview with Sun-ha Hong”

Abstract { English }

Data permeates our world. It is commonly understood as raw information from which decisions are derived – from the personal to the governmental level. Accordingly, the presentation of data, information visualization, is often perceived as a neutral representation of truth. However, both data and visualization are fraught with uncertainties, particularly when depicting future developments. These uncertainties emerge not only from algorithmic simplifications and selective practices, but also from historically repetitive conventions, power dynamics, and beliefs. As a result, future-oriented visualizations tend to conceal rather than communicate their underlying uncertainties.

Non-expert audiences, such as the broad public, are often assigned a passive role, as they can only consume what is presented to them. Consequently, future-oriented visualizations frequently appear rigid and one-dimensional, failing to reflect the plurality and complexity of possible future developments. This raises the question of how visualizations can be designed to function as a more speculative medium – one that enables users to actively navigate multiple futures.

The contribution of this thesis is two-fold. I identify different sources of uncertainty across the process of creating future-oriented visualizations, assembling them into a step-by-step uncertainty pipeline (1). The proposed uncertainty pipeline helps identify both explicit and implicit uncertainties. Thus, it justifies alternative design decisions. One such alternative is Interpretation Visualization, an approach that embraces plural futures, multiple perspectives, and discourse. It emphasizes the qualitative and discursive aspects of future reasoning. To demonstrate how this approach moves beyond rigid representations, I conduct an exemplary design study in the domain of forest health (2). Overall, this work proposes a shift in the creation of future-oriented visualizations: instead of showing what is likely to happen, practitioners can design with uncertainties in mind, creating spaces where people can critically reflect and envision the future.

Abstract { Deutsch }

Daten durchdringen unsere Welt und werden meist als Rohinformationen verstanden, auf Basis derer Entscheidungen abgeleitet werden können – und das von der persönlichen bis zur staatlichen Ebene. Entsprechend wird die Darstellung dieser Daten, die Informationsvisualisierung, als neutral aufgefasst. Doch sowohl Daten als auch Visualisierungen sind mit Unsicherheiten behaftet, insbesondere wenn es um die Darstellung zukünftiger Entwicklungen geht. Diese Unsicherheiten resultieren nicht nur aus algorithmischer Vereinfachung und selektiver Praxis, sondern auch aus historischen Konventionen und Machtverhältnissen. Folglich neigen zukunftsorientierte Visualisierungen dazu, die zugrunde liegenden Unsicherheiten zu verbergen, statt sie zu kommunizieren.

Der breiten Öffentlichkeit wird dabei eine passive Rolle zugewiesen: Sie kann nur konsumieren, was ihr präsentiert wird. Visualisierung wirken daher häufig starr und eindimensional. Sie spiegeln nicht die Vielfalt und Komplexität möglicher zukünftiger Entwicklungen wider. Es stellt sich die Frage, wie Visualisierungen gestaltet werden können, die als spekulatives Medium fungieren – solche, die es Nutzenden ermöglichen, aktiv Zukunftsszenarien zu navigieren.

Diese Thesis leistet zwei Beiträge: verschiedene Quellen der Unsicherheit, die während der Erstellung zukunftsorientierter Visualisierungen auftreten, werden zu einer schrittweisen Unsicherheits-Pipeline zusammengefasst (1). Diese Pipeline hilft, Unsicherheiten zu identifizieren, und rechtfertigt alternative Ansätze im Design von Zukunftsvisualisierungen. Ich schlage eine solche Alternative vor: die Interpretationsvisualisierung. Dieser Ansatz betont qualitative und diskursive Aspekte der Zukunftsargumentation. Zur Demonstration gestalte ich eine beispielhafte Designstudie im Bereich der Waldgesundheit (2). In bestimmten Fällen scheint es sinnvoll zukunftsorientierte Visualisierungen zu adaptieren: Statt vermeintlich rigide Wahrscheinlichkeiten zu betonen, können Gestalter*innen unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten neue Ansätze entwerfen und so Räume schaffen, in denen Betrachtende kritisch Zukünfte imaginieren können.

Design Study · The Future of Forest Health

Future developments are mostly presented as a static line chart. But, can we go beyond this by embracing uncertainties and positioning visualization as a practice of speculation, of discussing, and imagining futures? Can we create a space of multiple futures, their developments, and even unknowns? What would such an interpretation-visualization look like?

Deconstructing the present

The Home View, The Plural Space of Futures, presents a variety of scenarios, including the unknowns. It conveys the idea of multiple, different developments and allows to deconstruct the forest-health-assessment indicators.

{ FIG 1 } Scenarios are grouped by development archetype. Ultimately, the deep uncertainty of the future results in a variety of unknowns.

{ FIG 2 } Zooming in transforms the scenarios into a pull chart. The interplay between the indicators used to assess forest health and overall development is open for discovery.

{ FIG 3 } Forest health indicators and their underlying data offer just one perspective – albeit a reputable, valuable one. Therefore, lines encode information about impact and indicator internals, and allow editing.

Tracing scenarios

Clicking on a narrative tag in View 1 takes viewers to View 2: The Space of Individual Systems. Here, abstract scenarios become tangible future developments.

{ FIG 1 } A scenario is just one of many pathways. Under the guidance of a narrator, the scenario is built up step by step.

{ FIG 2 } A scenario is not an abstract, distant vision. Concrete changes occur in the system, bringing it about.

{ FIG 3 } Changes in the system affect a plethora of data dimensions ...

{ FIG 4 } ... and affect a plethora of stakeholders: the data space grows, assessment varies.

Preserving and creating

The Collective Library allows to store thoughts and moderates a collective database. It fosters the sense of making by oneself necessary for imagining future scenarios.

{ FIG 1 } At any point during the exploration, viewers can take a screenshot by clicking the screenshot button: they can mark an area, write a comment, and add it to the collective library.

{ FIG 2 } By default, screenshots are clustered by content similarity. Screenshots can be upvoted or downvoted, stored, or shared.

Thesis

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